Bitcoin Bulls Bail on $106M Longs — Bitfinex Whale Move or Just a Cooldown Above $86K?

Bitcoin surged past $86,000 on April 21, marking its highest level in over three weeks. But beneath the surface of this bullish momentum, a surprising shift in sentiment happened. 

Between April 17 and April 19, traders on Bitfinex significantly reduced their leveraged long positions by over $100 million, sparking speculation about an impending correction. 

The move comes just as broader macroeconomic and political factors add to the ongoing sentiment. 

With Donald Trump suggesting he might replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for failing to act quickly on rate cuts, risk assets like Bitcoin have received a short-term boost. 

However, the simultaneous decision by Bitfinex traders to reduce their exposure reveals a more nuanced story worth paying attention to.

Is this a subtle sign of whale-driven caution, or merely a strategic cooldown after weeks of gains? Let’s find out.

Bitfinex Whales Trim Leverage While Holding the Line

Bitcoin rallying back to the $86,000 zone was partially fueled by escalating political tensions in the U.S. President Donald Trump’s public criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, as well as the potential for monetary policy changes, sparked a surge in risk-on assets, including crypto. 

As traders positioned themselves around anticipated rate cuts, Bitcoin thrived on the narrative.

However, during this upswing, Bitfinex saw a $106 million drop in leveraged long positions. 

From April 10 to April 17, margin longs held steady at around 80,400 BTC, signaling bullish conviction. 

But by April 19, traders had reduced their exposure by 1,250 BTC despite Bitcoin reclaiming the $83,000 level. 

At first glance, this suggests profit-taking or hedging in anticipation of short-term volatility. Yet context matters. 

Bitfinex whales are known for making swift, high-volume adjustments, often as part of broader arbitrage or macro strategies. 

While long positions dropped slightly, the margin-long total remains at 79,136 BTC ($6.86 billion), vastly outweighing the modest 326 BTC in margin shorts. 

The 2% annual interest rate on margin longs compared to the 5.7% premium on 2-month BTC futures creates ample arbitrage opportunities, potentially explaining this recalibration.

Moreover, the correlation between Bitfinex margin data and Bitcoin’s price is not always linear. 

In early March, for example, whales increased their longs by over 13,000 BTC, only for Bitcoin to fall from nearly $96,000 to $67,000. 

Similarly, margin longs fell in mid-December 2024 while BTC surged. The real edge among these institutional traders lies in timing, which, before Bitcoin’s December drop to sub-$58,000 levels, had already led longs to decline by 26%. 

Rather than signaling bearishness, Bitfinex whales may be adjusting for expected volatility in a maturing market.

All in all, the $106 million pullback shouldn’t be mistaken for fear. 

It’s a measured recalibration, perhaps even a calculated profit-taking move, especially considering that these traders have historically demonstrated impeccable market timing and a higher-than-average risk tolerance.

Analyst Doctor Profit Predicted The Bitcoin Pullback — Is $70K Next?

The recent price action may seem sudden, but to some seasoned analysts, it’s all part of a script. 

One month ago, on March 21, prominent crypto analyst Doctor Profit posted a detailed price forecast on X (formerly Twitter).

The analyst predicted that Bitcoin would find a bottom around the EMA 50 level (also known as the Golden Line) at approximately $76,000, before bouncing to the $87,000-$88,000 range. As of April 21, Bitcoin has done exactly that.

Doctor Profit’s strategy hinges on the M2 money supply as a key, yet often misunderstood, macro indicator. 

According to the analysis, while market participants began pricing in liquidity-driven rallies starting February, Bitcoin had already accounted for this months earlier, during its September 2024 surge.

This led Doctor Profit to anticipate a correction before the resumption of bullish momentum.

True to form, Bitcoin dropped to around $76,000 by April 9, then rallied to over $87,000. Now comes the critical juncture. 

Doctor Profit forecasts a retracement to the $70,000-$74,000 support zone. 

The Full #BTC Market Report:

Start of a Bear Market or Are We Still Bullish?

This report covers:

• M2 Money Supply and Its REAL Impact on Bitcoin
• Market Strategy / What Everyone Is Getting Wrong
• Clarification on two bearish scenarios (Black Swan)

1. M2 Money Supply:… pic.twitter.com/YllPftXl5s

— Doctor Profit 🇨🇭 (@DrProfitCrypto) March 21, 2025

So from the analysis, if Bitcoin dips into this range but quickly rebounds and closes above the EMA 50, it signals a bullish continuation. 

However, a strong close below $70,000 could lead to a deeper correction, possibly dragging Bitcoin down to $50,000 in a worst-case scenario.

Yet despite this near-term bearish scenario, Doctor Profit remains long-term bullish. 

The analyst expects Bitcoin to stabilize and resume its uptrend by May or June, with projected highs between $120,000 and $140,000. Until then, volatility will remain the name of the game.

As of now, Bitcoin trades at $87,526, up 3.28% on the day. The bullish outlook would only be invalidated if Bitcoin posts a weekly close above $100,000, negating the predicted pullback.

Institutional Conviction: Saylor Buys the Dip Again

While some whales are trimming leveraged exposure, others are doubling down. 

Michael Saylor’s Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has once again made headlines by purchasing 6,556 BTC between April 14 and April 20, spending $555.8 million at an average price of $84,785 per coin. 

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 STRATEGY BUYS ANOTHER 6,556 #BITCOIN FOR $555.8 MILLION pic.twitter.com/zJfM3CZadm

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) April 21, 2025

The purchase was disclosed in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and funded through the sale of both common (MSTR) and preferred (STRK) stock.

This acquisition brings Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings to 538,200 BTC, acquired at a cumulative cost of $36.47 billion. 

With Bitcoin trading around $87,000, the company now holds over $46.8 billion in BTC, a paper gain of roughly $10 billion. 

Earlier this month, Strategy reported unrealized losses of $5.91 billion due to lower Bitcoin prices, but the recent rally has reversed the trend, putting the company back into a profit zone.

MSTR just reported an unrealized loss on its digital assets of $5.91B in the first quarter given the new accounting rules they’ve adopted.

“We may not be able to regain profitability in future periods”

Expect a lot of Saylor tweets. https://t.co/Af3dHk1rTk pic.twitter.com/AqxpmV4e1x

— Novacula Occami (@OccamiCrypto) April 7, 2025

The aggressive buy reflects continued institutional confidence in Bitcoin as a long-term store of value, particularly in an environment where traditional monetary policies are increasingly questioned. 

Saylor’s approach, which involves raising capital through equity and converting it into Bitcoin, suggests he is leveraging fiat dilution as an onramp into hard money.

With $1.53 billion in MSTR and $20.96 billion in STRK still available under existing sale programs, Strategy’s war chest remains deep.

Tactical Adjustment or Precursor to Volatility?

The $106 million reduction in Bitfinex margin longs, though notable, may not signify a bearish shift. 

Instead, it reflects a cautious recalibration by sophisticated traders amid macro uncertainty and potential rate cuts. 

Doctor Profit’s eerily accurate prediction adds weight to the idea that we’re entering a volatile but ultimately bullish phase, especially as institutional investors like Strategy double down.

While Bitcoin’s next major move hinges on how it interacts with the $80,000-$84,000 support zone, signs indicate a temporary cooldown rather than a full retreat. 

The coming weeks may bring high volatility, but long-term sentiment remains bullish, a narrative supported by whales, institutions, and historical patterns alike.

For now, all eyes are on the charts and headlines. Whether Bitcoin breaks the $90,000 barrier or tests the support zone first remains to be seen.