Ethereum Holds Near $1.9K as It Eyes Sixth Straight Monthly Loss — More Downside Ahead?

Ethereum trades near $1,980 as the second-largest cryptocurrency prepares to close its sixth consecutive month in negative territory. The asset has posted 11 red monthly closes out of the last 14 periods, placing it among the most prolonged bearish stretches in recent memory.

The coin recorded a modest 0.99% gain in the past 24 hours. However, the weekly performance remains negative at 2.86%. Market capitalization currently sits at $239.12 billion following a slight 0.85% recovery.

According to Lookonchain, Ethereum ETFs faced significant capital flight across both daily and weekly timeframes. Net outflows reached 22,492 ETH worth $44.42 million in a single day. The seven-day figure climbed to 91,151 ETH, representing $180.02 million in withdrawn capital.

Feb 16 Update:#Bitcoin ETFs:
1D NetFlow: -1,444 $BTC(-$98.86M)🔴
7D NetFlow: -5,555 $BTC(-$380.44M)🔴#Ethereum ETFs:
1D NetFlow: -22,492 $ETH(-$44.42M)🔴
7D NetFlow: -91,151 $ETH(-$180.02M)🔴#Solana ETFs:
1D NetFlow: +27,729 $SOL(+$2.34M)🟢
7D NetFlow: +148,057… pic.twitter.com/K6h747Gg6L

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) February 16, 2026

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently registers in the “Extreme Fear” category. Data from the indicator points to roughly 60% probability of another red monthly close for March 2026.

ETH Bear Market History and Institutional Positioning

Ethereum’s current downturn mirrors patterns observed during the 2018 bear market. Historical records confirm the asset endured up to seven consecutive red monthly closes during that period. The present six-month streak remains one month short of that benchmark.

Major financial platforms have issued recovery projections despite the bearish conditions. A consolidated average forecast from industry players, including Binance, places Ethereum’s expected price at $3,110. This target sits approximately 57% above current trading levels.

When factoring recovery forecasts into probability models, the likelihood of March closing red drops to approximately 40%. This shift represents a change in the risk-reward calculation for the asset.

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee stated in an interview with Faroukh Sarmad of Decrypt that the crypto winter is either ending or likely concludes by April. He cited extreme pessimism across crypto communities combined with traditional finance skepticism toward Bitcoin as late-cycle capitulation signals.

Sat down with Tom Lee (@fundstrat) during Consensus in Hong Kong to chat about the Crypto Winter, the dip on $ETH, BitMine's investment in Mr. Beast and more!

01:11 – When will the pain stop for Crypto?
02:14 – Crypto vs Gold, as hedge vs Inflation
06:06 – What’s TradFi’s take… pic.twitter.com/Hq8IlSEMgD

— Farokh 🇮🇷 (@farokh) February 14, 2026

The macro backdrop appears to be shifting in favor of risk assets. Inflation is cooling while ISM readings remain above 50. A potentially more dovish Federal Reserve leadership in 2026 could improve liquidity conditions.

Meanwhile, institutional accumulation continues. BitMine reportedly holds over 4.3 million ETH while staking a large portion. The firm generates yield plus fiat income of roughly $1 million daily with $600 million in liquidity reserves.

ETH Price Levels and Chart Indicators

Ethereum’s daily chart confirms a primary bearish trend since November 2025. The asset peaked around $3,500 before establishing a series of lower highs and lower lows. Price has broken multiple support levels without meaningful recovery.

Bollinger Bands show significant volatility expansion during the February selloff. The upper band sits at $2,651, the middle band at $2,156, and the lower band at $1,661. Price currently trades near the lower band region.

The MACD indicator registers deeply negative readings with the signal line at -223. However, early divergence appears to be forming. The histogram displays slightly green bars at the far right, suggesting a potential bullish crossover.

Immediate support lies at $1,950-$1,980, representing the current consolidation floor. A break below this zone targets the $1,850-$1,900 panic selling base. Major support at $1,660-$1,700 coincides with the lower Bollinger Band.

On the upside, $2,150-$2,200 serves as immediate resistance where the 20-day SMA meets previous breakdown levels. Intermediate resistance appears at $2,400-$2,500, with strong resistance at $2,650-$2,750.

Fibonacci retracement from the $3,500 high to $1,850 low places the 0.236 level at $2,240. Current price action remains below all meaningful retracement levels. Volume analysis shows capitulation-style selling followed by a large green volume bar on the bounce.

The short-term trajectory leans bearish with potential for a relief rally. A MACD crossover could trigger a bounce toward $2,150-$2,200. Failure to reclaim the 20-day SMA would confirm continued downside toward $1,700.