Analysts Say Bitcoin Faces Choppy 2026 Start With $80K–$140K Range in Focus

Bitcoin enters 2026 without a clear directional trend as price action remains volatile but contained. Analysts frame the year’s outlook around a broad $80,000–$140,000 range, with $90,000–$120,000 emerging as the core consolidation zone. The cryptocurrency trades at $88,316.47, up 0.82% over 24 hours.

Market capitalization stands near $1.7 trillion, down from peaks above $2.25 trillion recorded last year. Despite setting an all-time high above $126,000 in 2025, Bitcoin experienced deep pullbacks, briefly trading near $80,000. The asset closed last year down approximately 6.07%.

This uneven performance persists despite growing institutional participation. The absence of sustained momentum has left traders navigating a market that is neither decisively bullish nor bearish.

BTC Price Action Follows Fed Liquidity Moves and ETF Flow Swings

Bitcoin’s 2026 trajectory remains closely tied to global liquidity conditions. Markets increasingly expect further Federal Reserve rate cuts, but easing expectations have not translated into clear economic recovery. Growth indicators remain fragile, and inflation progress is uneven.

The Fed injected $74.6 billion via its Standing Repo Facility on December 31. This marked the largest injection since COVID-19, easing year-end banking stress. Bitcoin briefly surged past $90,000 following the announcement.

ETF activity remains mixed. According to Lookonchain data, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a one-day net inflow of 3,037 BTC, worth $269.61 million. However, seven-day net flows remain negative at -2,409 BTC, representing $213.86 million in outflows.

Dec 31 Update:#Bitcoin ETFs:
1D NetFlow: +3,037 $BTC(+$269.61M)🟢
7D NetFlow: -2,409 $BTC(-$213.86M)🔴#Ethereum ETFs:
1D NetFlow: +1,403 $ETH(+$4.2M)🟢
7D NetFlow: -50,255 $ETH(-$150.36M)🔴#Solana ETFs:
1D NetFlow: +36,533 $SOL(+$4.6M)🟢
7D NetFlow: +87,667 $SOL(+$11.05M)🟢… pic.twitter.com/FukziXRHhH

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) December 31, 2025

This pattern reinforces the view that capital flows are intermittent rather than trend-defining. U.S. fiscal dynamics and the approaching midterm election cycle continue to cloud policy signaling.

Tether has also purchased 8,889 BTC worth $876 million on January 1, raising its holdings to 96,185 BTC valued at $8.42 billion. The stablecoin issuer now ranks as Bitcoin’s fifth-largest holder. This follows its May 2023 policy to allocate 15% of profits to BTC reserves.

Tether(@Tether_to) withdrew another 8,889 $BTC($778.7M) from #Bitfinex to its reserve address 5 hours ago.

Tether now holds 96,370 $BTC($8.46B) in total.https://t.co/Ptsy2BsPoE pic.twitter.com/NLowYx79bx

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) January 1, 2026

Industry Leaders Forecast BTC Prices Up to $250,000 Despite Macro Uncertainty

Despite near-term uncertainty, prominent industry figures maintain optimistic long-term projections. Ethereum co-founder Charles Hoskinson has suggested Bitcoin could reach $250,000 in 2026. He cited fixed supply dynamics and institutional adoption while emphasizing macro conditions remain limiting factors.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes projects Bitcoin could exceed $200,000 by March 2026 if global liquidity remains supportive. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse forecasts $180,000 by late 2026, pointing to regulatory clarity and institutional participation.

📢 BRAD GARLINGHOUSE JUST CALLED IT: BITCOIN TO $180,000 🚀

At a panel on the future of $crypto, regulation, and institutional adoption, Ripple’s CEO Brad Garlinghouse laid it out clearly:

“I’ll say $BTC to $180,000 by December 31st, 2026.”

When leaders from $Ripple, $SOL, and… pic.twitter.com/rlr7M7xV5N

— COACHTY (@TheRealTRTalks) December 4, 2025

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee has moderated his outlook. He now expects Bitcoin to trade between $150,000 and $200,000 by early 2026, contingent on ETF demand proving durable.

Onchain data aligns with the cautious outlook. Long-term holders remain largely inactive, signaling neither aggressive accumulation nor widespread distribution. Exchange reserves have stabilized following prior drawdowns.

Realized price metrics show Bitcoin oscillating around key holder cost bases. This behavior historically accompanies consolidation phases rather than trend expansion.

The key risk to the range thesis remains a macro-driven liquidity shock. Such an event could trigger ETF outflows and rapid derivatives deleveraging, potentially pushing Bitcoin below $80,000.

BTC Onchain Metrics and Technical Indicators Signal Consolidation Phase

Bitcoin currently trades at $88,137.88 on the daily chart, positioned between the middle and upper Bollinger Bands. The 20-day SMA sits at $87,706.34, with upper resistance at $89,703.78 and lower support at $85,708.90.

The RSI reads 44.57, hovering near the midpoint and avoiding oversold territory. This neutral reading allows movement in either direction. The MACD histogram registers positive at +253.82, confirming a recent bullish crossover.

Critical support exists at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $86,612. This level was recently tested and held. A break below would target the $82,000 zone. Immediate resistance sits at the upper Bollinger Band near $89,700.

The broader structure shows a descending channel from October 2025 highs near $105,000. A potential double bottom pattern has formed around the $86,000 level. Tightening Bollinger Bands suggest volatility expansion is imminent.

Volume remains moderate with no exceptional spikes in recent sessions. For bullish confirmation, analysts will watch for a sustained break above $89,700 with RSI moving above 50. The short-term trajectory remains cautiously neutral with slight bullish bias, contingent on holding $86,612 support.