Bitcoin Surges to $93K as Fed Cut Bets Spike — Is a $100K Breakout Next?

Bitcoin has surged past $93,000 as markets price in a near-certain Federal Reserve rate hold, fueling renewed momentum across crypto assets. Polymarket data now shows a 91% probability that the Fed will maintain current interest rates at its next meeting. The flagship cryptocurrency currently trades at $94,086, up 3.25% in 24 hours and 7.3% over the past week.

Market participants attribute the rally to what analysts describe as an “everything rally.” Growing confidence that monetary tightening has peaked continues to ease pressure on liquidity-sensitive assets. Combined with steady ETF inflows and reduced macro uncertainty, the rate-hold consensus has pushed BTC toward key psychological levels.

Bitcoin ETFs has also recorded substantial inflows during this period. According to Lookonchain data, one-day net flows reached 3,788 BTC, equivalent to $353.44 million. Weekly net flows totaled 4,537 BTC, worth approximately $423.33 million. These figures underscore sustained institutional demand for Bitcoin exposure through regulated vehicles.

Jan 5 Update:#Bitcoin ETFs:
1D NetFlow: +3,788 $BTC(+$353.44M)🟢
7D NetFlow: +4,537 $BTC(+$423.33M)🟢#Ethereum ETFs:
1D NetFlow: +5,471 $ETH(+$17.34M)🟢
7D NetFlow: +10,811 $ETH(+$34.27M)🟢#Solana ETFs:
1D NetFlow: +50,455 $SOL(+$6.81M)🟢
7D NetFlow: +140,235… pic.twitter.com/MRxsv5ubz4

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) January 5, 2026

Bitcoin Whale Moves and Institutional Accumulation

Major holders continue to accumulate Bitcoin at current price levels. Michael Saylor’s Strategy purchased an additional 1,283 BTC last week for $116 million at an average price of $90,391. The company now holds 673,783 BTC valued at $62.58 billion, with an average cost basis of $75,026 per coin.

Michael Saylor(@saylor)'s @Strategy bought another 1,283 $BTC($116M) at $90,391 last week.

Strategy now holds 673,783 $BTC($62.58B), with an average buying price of $75,026, sitting on an unrealized profit of $12.03B(+24%).https://t.co/QahmK0JVbg pic.twitter.com/1QphimlOJU

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) January 5, 2026

Strategy currently sits on unrealized profits of $12.03 billion, representing a 24% gain on its total Bitcoin position. Meanwhile, other large holders have shown renewed interest in the market.

A wallet identified as bc1qvl deposited 1,000 BTC worth $93.25 million back into Binance. The same wallet had withdrawn these coins just one week prior, locking in an estimated profit of $3.42 million.

Perhaps most notably, a Satoshi-era whale purchased 7,658 BTC worth $710 million. This wallet became active for the first time since 2012, representing one of the oldest Bitcoin addresses to re-enter the market.

Venezuela’s Alleged BTC Holdings Spark Market Speculation

Speculation surrounding Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro‘s political situation has added another dimension to the rally. Intelligence reports suggest the Venezuelan regime may have accumulated up to 600,000 BTC, worth over $60 billion.

These holdings would rival those of major institutional players like MicroStrategy and BlackRock. Reports indicate the assets were acquired through gold swaps and USDT oil exports to bypass U.S. sanctions.

Following developments in January, attention has shifted to the potential seizure of these reserves. If confiscated, these BTC could be frozen as forfeited assets or added to U.S. strategic reserves. Either scenario would represent a significant supply squeeze.

Bitcoin Tests $95,000 Resistance as MACD Confirms Bullish Crossover

Bitcoin currently trades at $94,325, testing the upper Bollinger Band at $95,074. The 20-period simple moving average sits at $92,286, providing near-term support. The lower Bollinger Band establishes critical support at $88,421.

The MACD indicator displays a confirmed bullish crossover. The MACD line reads 845.76 while the signal line sits at 337.06. Green histogram bars indicate strengthening upward momentum following a turn from deeply negative territory.

Analyst Ted identified the $95,000-$96,000 region as the “last line of defense” before six figures. The chart shows Bitcoin consolidating beneath this level with higher lows, suggesting strong demand and absorption of selling pressure.

Key resistance levels include $95,074 at the daily high, followed by the $100,000 psychological barrier. Support levels rest at $92,286 at the 20 SMA and $88,421 at the lower Bollinger Band.

Volume analysis reveals increased buying interest on recent upward moves. The price has reclaimed the $90,000 level and broken above the 20 SMA. A sustained close above $94,000 with volume would confirm continued strength.

A decisive breakout above $95,000 could open the path toward $100,000. Rejection at current levels would likely result in consolidation back to the $90,000-$92,000 support zone rather than a bearish reversal. The near-term trajectory remains bullish pending confirmation above the $95,000 resistance.