Bitcoin Risks Falling to $73K as Institutions Face Max-Pain Scenario

The cryptocurrency market is displaying sharp divergences among major institutional holders following recent price declines.

André Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise Europe, identified potential “max-pain” levels for Bitcoin.

He pointed to $84,000, the average cost of BlackRock’s IBIT, and $73,000, MicroStrategy’s cost basis. Reaching either price point could signal a market “clear-out” and potentially the cycle’s final bottom.

FWIW —

Think max max pain is reached the moment we tag either the IBIT cost basis at 84k or MSTR cost basis at 73k.

Very likely we’ll see a final bottom somewhere in between.

But these will be fire sale prices and akin to a full cycle reset imo.

— André Dragosch, PhD⚡ (@Andre_Dragosch) November 19, 2025

Blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain also reported that Strategy holds 649,870 BTC purchased at an average price of $74,433, currently showing a $6.15 billion gain (+12.72%).

Bitmine’s 3.56 million ETH, acquired at roughly $4,010, is now down $4.52 billion (-31.67%).

Forward Industries’ 6.83 million SOL, bought at $232.08, faces a $711 million loss (-44.85%).

These figures underscore the widening PnL gap between Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies.

Analysts Forecast Prolonged Bearish Pressure

Alliance DAO co-founder QwQiao warned that the next bear market could be harsher than many expect. He highlighted that inexperienced investors are buying spot and ETF products without fully understanding crypto risks.

According to QwQiao, the market may require another roughly 50% drop before a solid foundation forms for the next supercycle. This liquidation period would establish more sustainable support levels.

Placeholder partner Chris Burniske emphasized that the era of DAT selling has only just begun. His comments suggest that despite recent rallies, downward pressure on digital assets may continue in the near term.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has fallen below $90,000 for the second time this week. The world’s largest cryptocurrency traded at $89,473.56, down 4% in 24 hours and 12% over the past week.

Market Liquidations Accelerate Amid Extreme Fear

The sharp decline triggered widespread liquidations across crypto exchanges. A total of 122,196 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with total liquidations reaching $315.98 million.

🚨 UPDATE: $135M IN LONG POSITIONS WERE LIQUIDATED IN THE LAST 4 HOURS AS $BTC DROPPED BELOW $86K. pic.twitter.com/UfTPfimt3p

— Coinwaft (@coinwaft) November 21, 2025

Bitcoin’s market capitalization declined to $1.78 trillion, matching the 4% daily drop. The cryptocurrency has erased all year-to-date gains, marking a 30% correction from its all-time high reached in October.

The global crypto market capitalization fell 1.37% to $3.12 trillion. The Fear & Greed Index plunged to 16, indicating the 8th day of extreme fear among market participants.

This marks the lowest reading since March 2025 and the longest extreme fear period in 3 years. Bitcoin maintains 58.7% market dominance despite the downturn.

Spot trading volume has declined 43% year-over-year. These thin liquidity conditions amplify price volatility across the cryptocurrency market.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin first breached the $90,000 threshold yesterday before recovering briefly. A death cross pattern formed below $94K, with repeated failures to hold the $90,000 level signaling intensifying selling pressure.

Key support levels now stand at $84,000 and $73,000, representing institutional cost bases. Resistance remains at $94,000, where the death cross pattern emerged.

Following the 30% correction from all-time highs and ongoing liquidations, Bitcoin faces continued bearish pressure. The combination of extreme fear readings, declining volumes, and institutional divergences suggests further downside risk in the near term.