Bitcoin Slides Below $96K—Is This the Start of a Bear Market or Just Bull Run Exhaustion?

Bitcoin has continued its decline, breaking below $96K and sparking debate among analysts over whether this marks the start of a bear market or a temporary bout of bull-run exhaustion.

Bitcoin dropped below $96,000 on November 14, trading at $94,201.76 after a 4.57% decline in 24 hours. Its market capitalization fell to $1.9 trillion. Trading volume surged to $119.74 billion, marking a 35% increase over the previous day. The spike in volume coincides with heightened selling pressure from holders.

According to Glassnode data, nearly 99% of investors who accumulated Bitcoin within the past 155 days now hold positions at a loss at the $95,000 level. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index plummeted to an extreme low of 16, reflecting investor panic across the market.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency has shed value despite political developments that typically support risk assets.

President Donald Trump signed a funding package late Wednesday, ending the 43-day government shutdown. The resolution was expected to boost liquidity as federal paychecks resume and stalled spending flows back into the economy.

However, Bitcoin continued its descent despite the political breakthrough. The disconnect highlights that broader market dynamics currently outweigh political developments in determining cryptocurrency price direction.

Bear Market or Capitulation? Bitcoin Tests Bulls’ Resolve Below $96K

The market is now at crossroads on if Bitcoin price action has slid the cycle into the bear market or bottom is near.

Worsening the sentiment, expectations of a December 2025 Federal Reserve rate cut collapsed from 95% to 51%, triggering a selloff in risk assets. Bitcoin liquidations reached $1.3 billion in 24 hours as leveraged long positions unwound rapidly.

The reduced rate cut expectations strengthen the U.S. dollar, diminishing Bitcoin’s appeal as a risk-on asset. The Fed’s “flying blind” stance due to missing economic data from the government shutdown adds uncertainty to monetary policy direction.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $860 million in outflows on November 14, the second-largest daily withdrawal since February 2025.

📊 LATEST: BTC AND ETH SPOT ETFS SAW SHARP NET OUTFLOWS ON NOV. 13, WITH BITCOIN LOSING $866.7M AND ETHEREUM $259.6M, WHILE SOL SPOT ETFS RECORDED $1.5M IN INFLOWS. pic.twitter.com/6X3qXsWmDY

— Coinwaft (@coinwaft) November 14, 2025

Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust led exits with $318 million in redemptions, signaling cooling institutional demand after months of sustained inflows.

The broader cryptocurrency market reflected Bitcoin’s weakness. Ethereum declined 0.36%, Solana dropped 1.06%, and XRP fell 1.27%. Traditional markets showed similar stress, with DOW futures down 0.6%, S&P 500 futures down nearly 1%, and NASDAQ 100 futures down 1.5%.

Prediction markets on Polymarket assigned a 62% probability that Bitcoin breaks below $90,000 before year-end.

⚡ INSIGHT: PREDICTION MARKETS POLYMARKET LEANS BEARISH, PROJECTING A 62% CHANCE THAT $BTC BREAKS $90K BEFORE YEAR-END. pic.twitter.com/bwotbm6q0j

— Coinwaft (@coinwaft) November 14, 2025

A Trader on X Sam Price identified a head and shoulders pattern forming on the one-hour chart, noting declining momentum with downside targets at $102,000, $99,000, and $95,000.

Bulls Maintain Long-Term Conviction Despite Downturn

MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor dismissed rumors that the company sold 47,000 BTC from its holdings. He posted “HODL” on social media, encouraging investors to resist panic selling during the volatility.

In a CNBC interview, Saylor emphasized Bitcoin’s rise saying:

“BTC went from 55k to now 94k in 14 months, which exceed any reasonable investor.” He also said that, “If you are going to be a bitcoin investor, you need a 4 year time horizon and you need to be prepared to handle the volatility in this market”

Luxembourg’s Finance Minister invested 1% of the country’s sovereign wealth fund, representing over $730 million, in Bitcoin, according to the Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute. He declared Luxembourg’s commitment to long-term holding and predicted other countries would follow this lead.

JUST IN: LUXEMBOURG FINANCE MINISTER JUST SAID HE IS CONFIDENT OTHER COUNTRIES WILL FOLLOW THEM AND BUY #BITCOIN

"AS MICHAEL SAYLOR SAYS, THERE IS NO 2nd BEST" 🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/nd8p9COL6F

— The Bitcoin Historian (@pete_rizzo_) November 13, 2025

Technical Indicators Point to $85,000-$90,000 Support Zone as Death Cross Looms

Bitcoin broke below the critical $100,000 psychological support level, testing the $94,000 to $92,000 zone. The price trades at $95,321, representing a 20% correction from the October 2025 all-time high near $120,000.

The Relative Strength Index sits at 38.84, recovering slightly from an oversold reading of 30.59 but remaining weak below the 40 threshold. The lack of bullish divergence signals weak buying interest despite oversold conditions.

The MACD indicator remains deeply bearish at -666.12, with the signal line at -2,579.59. Both lines occupy negative territory with no signs of a bullish crossover, while the histogram shows sustained red bars indicating continued selling pressure.

The 200-day exponential moving average at $108,000 now serves as critical resistance, with price trading 13% below this level. The 50-day EMA approaches the 200-day EMA from above, threatening a death cross formation that would confirm long-term bearish momentum.

A sustained close below $94,000 could trigger automated selling toward $88,000, matching May 2025 lows. Bulls require a reclaim of the $100,000 to $101,285 range to stem further losses and invalidate the current bearish structure.

The technical picture remains bearish with price action, momentum indicators, and moving averages aligned to the downside. The path of least resistance points toward further declines toward the $85,000 to $90,000 support zone.