ETH Jumps Over 4% to Reclaim $3,100 — Is This A Bullish Confirmation?

Ethereum surged past $3,100 on January 2, posting a 4.51% gain in 24 hours. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap now trades at $3,124.77. Weekly gains have extended to 6.87%, sparking renewed bullish speculation across digital asset markets.

Risk appetite traditionally returns to crypto and equity markets in January. The pattern follows year-end tax-loss harvesting and thin holiday liquidity conditions. Traders are now rotating back into digital assets after December’s profit-taking phase.

US Ethereum ETFs recorded approximately $67 million in net inflows to close 2025. This reversal from recent outflows signals renewed institutional interest heading into the new year. According to lookonchain data, Ethereum ETFs saw one-day net flows of 12,930 ETH worth $39.82 million.

Jan 2 Update:#Bitcoin ETFs:
1D NetFlow: -2,061 $BTC(-$183.86M)🔴
7D NetFlow: -2,746 $BTC(-$244.93M)🔴#Ethereum ETFs:
1D NetFlow: +12,930 $ETH(+$39.82M)🟢
7D NetFlow: -12,629 $ETH(-$38.9M)🔴#Solana ETFs:
1D NetFlow: +30,799 $SOL(+$3.97M)🟢
7D NetFlow: +96,181… pic.twitter.com/grQn6U9c9t

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) January 2, 2026

However, seven-day ETF flows remained negative at 12,629 ETH, representing $38.9 million in outflows. Volumes remain relatively low, and sentiment is still cautious with the Fear & Greed Index reading approximately 34.

Institutional Giants and Network Upgrades Fuel Optimism

Standard Chartered has raised its Ethereum price target to $7,500. The bank also increased its 2028 projection to $25,000, citing improved market conditions and accelerating institutional participation.

Corporate treasuries and spot ETFs have acquired approximately 3.8% of all Ether in circulation since June. Treasury firms alone purchased around 2.3 million ETH in just over two months. This pace nearly doubles comparable Bitcoin accumulation phases.

The bank highlighted Ethereum’s dominant position in stablecoins. More than half of all stablecoins operate on Ethereum, generating roughly 40% of all blockchain fees. This reinforces the network’s role as the primary settlement layer for dollar-denominated blockchain transactions.

Developers have confirmed Ethereum’s next major upgrades, Glamsterdam, slated for mid-2026, and Hegota, expected later in the year. Both upgrades will focus on improving state management and implementing Verkle Trees to enhance network efficiency. These developments follow December’s successful Fusaka upgrade, which expanded data capacity through PeerDAS. Meanwhile, staking activity has climbed to 120.6 million ETH, signaling continued confidence in Ethereum’s long-term technical roadmap.

Staking activity reached 120.6 million ETH, reflecting confidence in Ethereum’s technical roadmap. Meanwhile, co-founder Vitalik Buterin reiterated the network’s mission to build censorship-resistant infrastructure.

Buterin cited recent centralized web outages affecting Cloudflare and AWS that disrupted Coinbase and Ledger services. Growing institutional interest in decentralized systems followed 2025’s $2.2 billion hack spree across the crypto industry.

Mixed Analyst Forecasts for 2026

Not all analysts share bullish outlooks for the year ahead. Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen argued ETH is unlikely to establish new all-time highs in 2026. Cowen cited prevailing Bitcoin market conditions and broader liquidity dynamics as constraining factors.

ETH lagged Bitcoin significantly throughout 2025. However, early 2026 data shows signs of catching up amid expectations for network upgrades and institutional adoption. Today’s move also reflects anticipation around a $2.2 billion BTC/ETH options expiry that could unlock further volatility.

The current price action feels like a tentative recovery rather than a strong breakout. Market participants await confirmation signals before committing to larger positions.

Technical Analysis

Ethereum currently trades at $3,127.55, having reclaimed the 50-day simple moving average at $3,026. This crossover represents a bullish signal for short-term traders. The Relative Strength Index sits at 49.82, placing ETH in neutral territory with significant upside room before reaching overbought conditions.

The MACD indicator confirms a bullish crossover with the MACD line at 21.20 crossing above the signal line at -16.99. Histogram bars are turning green with increasing momentum. However, the indicator remains below zero, suggesting full bullish confirmation requires further upward movement.

Immediate resistance sits at $3,148, with key resistance zones at $3,300-$3,400 and $3,500-$3,600. Support levels include $3,026 at the 50-day SMA and $2,833-$2,900 at previous consolidation areas. A potential double bottom pattern appears near the $2,800-$2,900 zone from November-December lows.

Bollinger Bands show contraction after expansion, suggesting potential volatility expansion approaching. Volume remains moderate without major spikes to confirm strong institutional buying. The 200-day SMA near $3,500 continues acting as long-term resistance.

A break and hold above $3,200 with volume would confirm bullish momentum toward $3,500-$3,600. Conversely, a break below $3,026 would invalidate the bullish setup. The short-term outlook remains cautiously bullish pending volume confirmation and a decisive break above resistance.