XRP Nears Key Breakout Zone as Market Awaits Confirmation Above $3.09

XRP has spent more than a year consolidating while much of the altcoin market experienced significant losses. Analysts now suggest this extended sideways movement could be setting the stage for a major breakout. The $3.09 level has been identified as the critical threshold needed to unlock the next leg higher.

The Ripple-issued token currently trades at $2.00, down 3% over the past week and 2.29% in the last 24 hours. Market watchers argue that a move toward higher price targets remains a matter of timing rather than probability. If the key zone flips into support, expectations for a powerful XRP rally could quickly materialize.

However, broader macro conditions and technical indicators present a mixed picture for traders monitoring XRP’s near-term trajectory.

XRP Slides as Trade War Tensions Rattle Crypto Markets

Crypto markets faced widespread selling pressure after the United States announced 10% tariffs on European Union goods, effective February 1. The announcement reignited trade war concerns and sent investors toward traditional safe havens.

Gold futures surged to a record $4,660 per ounce. Silver climbed above $94 per ounce for the first time in history, gaining 31% in 2026. Meanwhile, Bitcoin dropped 3.2%, dragging altcoins including XRP lower alongside it.

Silver and Gold are pumping

Everything else is dumping

We all know what happens next pic.twitter.com/4Yinf82jxL

— Shibo (@GodsBurnt) January 19, 2026

The tariff escalation threatens trade flows worth approximately $1.5 trillion between the U.S. and EU. Over $130 billion was wiped from total crypto market capitalization within 90 minutes of the selloff.

XRP maintains a high 30-day correlation with Bitcoin at 0.87. The risk-off environment reduced demand for speculative assets. XRP’s turnover ratio stands at 3.39%, with lower liquidity amplifying downside moves.

The S&P 500 faced resistance near the 7,000 level, adding to cross-asset caution throughout Monday’s session. Progress in U.S.-EU trade negotiations and the February 1 tariff implementation remain key events to monitor.

XRP Derivatives Reset Signals Cautious Positioning, Potential Volatility Ahead

According to Coinalyze, XRP open interest remained elevated at approximately $1.3 billion, but a sharp 24-hour decline of roughly 10.9% showed that traders were actively reducing leveraged exposure rather than initiating new positions. Perpetual contracts continued to dominate open interest, while traditional futures activity stayed minimal which is an indication of a risk-off, defensive stance across derivatives markets.

This contraction in open interest reduces the probability of liquidation cascades during volatile price swings, as fewer overleveraged positions remain vulnerable. At the same time, it reflects fading short-term speculative interest in XRP.

However, should momentum return and price successfully reclaim the $2.10 level, the combination of reduced open interest and bearish positioning could fuel a short squeeze, with an initial upside objective near $2.20.

From a technical perspective, analyst ChartNerd observed that XRP’s ability to hold key Fibonacci support levels could allow a higher-low structure to form. Under this scenario, a short-term advance toward $2.70 becomes increasingly plausible, although confirmation via sustained follow-through price action remains essential.

If $XRP can hold these FIB support targets and mark a higher low, then $2.70 is looking like a real possibility in the near short-term. Waiting for confirmation 👇 https://t.co/LHNNgazugx pic.twitter.com/stVcFBAOAU

— 🇬🇧 ChartNerd 📊 (@ChartNerdTA) January 18, 2026

Meanwhile, EgragCrypto emphasized focusing on XRP’s daily timeframe market structure rather than short-term volatility. According to the broader technical framework, underlying structural signals remain intact beneath recent price fluctuations, offering clearer guidance for the next directional move.

XRP Breaks Below Key Support as Death Cross Forms

XRP has broken below the $2.05 Fibonacci support level and the 50-day simple moving average. The token now trades near the lower Bollinger Band at $1.85. The middle band at $2.08 serves as immediate resistance.

A death cross pattern has formed, with the blue moving average crossing below the red. This configuration signals bearish momentum continuation. The MACD indicator shows a bearish crossover in progress with the MACD line at -0.0146.

Key support levels include $2.00 at the psychological level, $1.94 at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, and $1.85 at the lower Bollinger Band. Resistance sits at $2.05, followed by $2.10-$2.15 where liquidation clusters exist.

Volume reached 147.15 million during the breakdown, confirming selling pressure. Red volume bars dominate recent trading sessions. The RSI at 35.79 approaches oversold territory, where historical bounces have occurred.

For bulls to regain control, XRP must reclaim $2.05 with volume and close above the 20-day SMA at $2.08. A daily close above $2.15 would restart the uptrend. Until then, the immediate bias remains bearish with a likely $1.94 test within three to five days.