Bitcoin Recovers Above Key $102K Support — Can BTC Rally Continue?

Bitcoin has recovered above the critical $102k support levels which is in tandem with the 365-day moving average.

The world’s leading cryptocurrency is now trading at $103,848, representing a 2.85% rebound in the last 24 hours after briefly falling below the $100K psychological level yesterday for the first time since June.

Bitcoin is below its 365-day moving average ($102K), a key technical and psychological support level last broken at the start of the 2022 bear market.

If price fails to reclaim it, data suggest the next support lies near $72K, the Traders’ minimum realized price band. pic.twitter.com/VySVce5NY9

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 5, 2025

The asset remains down 6.4% over the past week, but trading volume has spiked to 370 BTC, signaling renewed buying pressure as investors defend the psychologically significant $100K level.

Historical Pattern Points to Potential BTC Rally

BTC has touched its 50-week moving average, a level that historically marked the beginning of major rallies. In September 2024, Bitcoin surged 99% to $109K after testing this technical indicator.

Source: X/Sykodelic

Following the same pattern in April 2025, BTC rallied 50% to reach $125K. The cryptocurrency now hovers near $103K, testing this pivotal support zone for the third time.

Meanwhile, on-chain metrics reveal aggressive accumulation by long-term holders. Over the past 30 days, accumulator addresses added 375,000 BTC to their holdings without selling any coins.

Yesterday alone, these wallets acquired 50,000 BTC, setting a new all-time high in accumulation activity. In less than two months, the monthly average doubled from 130,000 BTC to 262,000 BTC.

The growth of Bitcoin ETFs appears to be driving this accumulation wave. Institutional investors and funds continue purchasing during price dips, supporting the floor at $100K.

Market Divided on Bitcoin’s Next Move

Mayne, founder of Breakout prop firm, maintains his bullish outlook despite recent volatility. He stated the low is likely close or already established, focusing attention on the quality of the bounce.

If that wasn't the weekly cycle low, the bears have a few days left to try and put one in.

Either way my thesis remains the same, low is close or already in.

Focus is on the bounce, will it be new ATHs or a lower high.

This is going to be the most difficult trade.

Do you… https://t.co/ZP3XcW0PWc

— Mayne (@Tradermayne) November 5, 2025

If that wasn’t the weekly cycle low, the bears have a few days left to try and put one in. Either way my thesis remains the same, low is close or already in. Focus is on the bounce, will it be new ATHs or a lower high. This is going to be the most difficult trade. Do you derisk on a solid bounce or hold for new highs?

However, bearish indicators present a contrasting view. The Risk-Off Signal has entered a High-Risk Regime, suggesting elevated selling pressure and vulnerability to deeper corrections.

Analysts warn that a weekly close below $97K-$98K, combined with intensifying risk signals, could push the market into capitulation. Such a scenario would officially mark the beginning of bear territory.

In contrast, Cathie Wood, Founder and CEO of ARK Invest, recently reaffirmed long-term conviction in Bitcoin. Speaking on The Master Investor Podcast, she outlined three pillars supporting Bitcoin’s dominance.

Wood emphasized Bitcoin’s transparent, rule-based supply model as a foundation for a global monetary system. She highlighted its unbreakable security as a Layer 1 blockchain that has never been hacked.

She concluded that Bitcoin represents a unique asset class, recognized since ARK’s 2016 white paper. Its transparency, decentralization, and resilience ensure it remains central to the digital financial revolution.

Technical Analysis: BTC Rally Could Continue Towards $110k

Bitcoin currently trades at $104,354, defending the critical $100K support zone with elevated volume. The RSI has recovered from oversold territory at 38.5, climbing away from extremes below 40.

The indicator remains below the 50 neutral line, suggesting room for upward momentum. The MACD shows early signs of a bullish crossover, with the histogram narrowing and transitioning to lighter colors.

The MACD line approaches the signal line from below at -633.97, indicating weakening bearish momentum. Volume analysis confirms genuine accumulation, with 370 BTC traded during the recent bounce.

Immediate resistance sits at $105K-$106K. A daily close above this range could trigger a push toward $110K-$115K and potentially retest the $125K zone from October.

Support levels are clearly defined. The $100K psychological level serves as the primary defense, while $98K represents the critical invalidation point below which deeper corrections become likely.

A break below $98K would expose secondary support at $95K-$96K. The current price action suggests buyers are stepping in with conviction at $100K, creating a binary setup.

The technical picture indicates cautiously bullish conditions, pending confirmation above $105K-$106K. Failure to break resistance or a drop below $98K would invalidate this outlook and signal continued correction.